Seat predictions are based on multiple factors including previous elections and national polls. They are not particularly reliable. A Primary is a far better way of finding out which candidate local people think is best-placed to defeat the Conservative. It's important to note that people currently expected to vote for Reform may well vote tactically for the Conservatives if they see one progressive party threatening to win. That's why we need a major swing behind a single progressive candidate to be sure of victory here.
We refer to the following seat prediction websites:
- Electoral Calculus - link
- Election Maps UK - link
- Best for Britain MRP poll - link
- Stonehaven MRP poll - link
We averaged the prediction from the three above which offer predictions for South Devon. On 9th Jan 2024, the average prediction for the Conservatives was 32%. All but one of the pollsters predicted a Conservative win. The total of the three progressive parties was 58% - a comfortable win if we're clever and vote together.
The South Devon constituency sits across two local council areas: South Hams and Torbay. Here are the results for each.